Retirement Calculator
How much is enough?
The traditional answer is 25× your annual expenses — the 4% rule. If you want to spend $60k/year in retirement, you need $1.5M invested. The math comes from the Trinity Study, which tested historical 30-year retirement outcomes and found that 4% withdrawal rates survived virtually all starting conditions including 1929 and 1973.
Modern planners often recommend 3.25–3.5% for longer retirements (40+ years) or higher safety margins. Sequence-of-returns risk — a bad market in your first few retirement years — is the biggest threat. Keeping 2–3 years of expenses in bonds/cash smooths the ride so you never sell stocks at a loss.
Frequently asked questions
How much do I need to retire?
A common shortcut is 25× your desired annual expenses (the 4% rule). If you want $60,000/year in retirement, aim for $1.5M invested. This assumes a 30-year retirement with a diversified portfolio. Longer retirements or higher spending require larger multiples (30–33×).
What is the 4% rule?
The 4% rule says you can safely withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year 1, adjust for inflation each year, and have high odds of not running out over 30 years. It's based on historical US market data (Trinity Study). Modern variants recommend 3.25–3.5% for longer retirements or higher safety margins.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
Returns in the first 5–10 years of retirement matter disproportionately. A bad market in early retirement — while you're withdrawing — can permanently impair your portfolio, even if long-term average returns are fine. Mitigate by keeping 2–3 years of expenses in cash/bonds, so you never sell stocks at a loss during a downturn.
Should I count Social Security?
Yes, but discount it. Include your projected benefit in retirement income but plan as if it'll deliver 70–80% of promised amounts — the Trust Fund is projected to require benefit reductions or tax increases around 2033 if Congress doesn't act. Conservative planning assumes partial benefits.
What's a 'safe withdrawal rate' vs. 'perpetual withdrawal rate'?
Safe withdrawal (4% for 30 years) depletes the principal slowly — you might end with a large balance, or die broke, depending on returns. Perpetual withdrawal (~3–3.5%) preserves principal in real terms forever, useful if you want to leave an inheritance or hedge against longevity risk.
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